2010 has been a very turbulent year for new energy and cleantech globally. Technology and Investment predictions for 2011

The year 2010 will probably go down in history as one of the most turbulent years in a non war environment. Just about all of the black swans imaginable have come and more or less been dealt with. We have seen severe credit crisis, extreme regulatory changes, political reversals, country defaults…the list is long. One is almost afraid to peek out from behind what cover is left and gaze into 2011. What can we expect? Where will the deals be and what will they look like?

“The stone age did not end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”

Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil minister

Have the renewable energy drivers changed?

In most energy circles, the threat of climate change was the main driver in recent years for pushing renewable energy, cleantech and efficiency.  However, several other concerns have re-emerged from the shadows. The ongoing financial crisis, which some analysts link with volatile oil prices, reinforced the concern that high energy prices can cripple economic growth. Headlines announcing gas supply cuts to the Ukraine, oil tanker hijackings along the coast of Somalia, pipeline bombings in Nigeria, and hurricanes destroying oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico showed that threats to energy security arise in many forms and unexpected places.

The financial crisis coupled with huge deficits of many OECD countries, mostly the ones with attractive renewable energy stimulus regulations, has caused a serious reversal in government backed feed-in-tariffs (FIT) or other incentive plans. The year began with Spain threatening to enact retroactive regulations and severely cutting back on FITs, Italy emerged with court disputes between the central and regional legislators over licensing processes, Germany has cut back several times on its program, Czech Republic has made severe retroactive tax laws, Greece has all but disappeared from the scene and many other countries are sluggish to regulated promised stimulus laws. Only the United States and perhaps India have gone forward and the former just passing an extension of the tax grant program at the 11th hour.

So where has all the enthusiasm gone in this, until now, high growth sector? The main drivers of governmental policies where firmly anchored in; Climate change, energy Independence, Oil costs and depleting reserves and finally economic development and job creation. The real fact is that investment has fallen and although prime lending rates are at record lows the spread to financing projects and companies indicates a large risk premium (an average 500 basis points in the best of cases) which indicates that the financial community is not totally confident in these assets. Most international agencies still forecast strong growth and stick to investment and development figures but the market investment figures and the credit facility terms do not reflect the same optimism. So while the governments finally decide which way they are going, private equity and banks recover the faith in the sector, what segments are still secure and which new technologies seem headed for the mainstream in this roller coaster scenario?

The most likely new energy global deal list for 2011 is  (ordered in terms of market attractiveness):
 
1.    Wind. In spite of circumstancial declines in wind deployment wind continues to be a favorite for development and investment. The IEA’s Reference scenario suggests – contrary to the clear upwards trend we have witnessed in the past – that growth rates for wind power would decrease substantially in the coming years, and that 2010 would see an addition of only 26.8 GW, which would represent a decrease of the annual market by 30% in 2010 (compared to an increase of 41% in 2009). While the Reference scenario suggests that between 20 and 26 GW of new capacity will be added each year between 2010 and 2020, reaching 41 GW/year only in 2030, the Moderate scenario envisages the addition of 40.2 GW two decades earlier (in 2010), followed by 63 GW/year by 2015, close to 90 GW/year by 2020, and almost 150 GW/year by 2030. This translates into 100 GW more installations per year than the Reference scenario by 2030, even though the annual market growth rate would by then have dropped off to a modest 4% per year. In terms of total installed wind power capacity, 830 GW would be reached in 2020 (twice as much as under the Reference scenario), and close to 1,800 GW by 2030 (more than three times as much).

2.    Photovoltaic. It can reasonably be assumed that photovoltaic electricity will become a mainstream power source both in Europe as well as the United States by 2020 and a major power source in 2050. The “SET for 2020” study (www.setfor2020.eu) carried out by EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) with the support of the Consulting firm A.T. Kearney, outlines that, provided some boundary conditions are met, PV could supply up to 12% of the electricity demand in Europe by 2020, thus representing 390 GW of installed capacity and 460 TWh of electricity generation.

3.    Efficiency Technology. Greenpeace stated in its 2010 report Energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK that “half the solution to climate change is the smart use of power.” Also according to Greenpeace we need to “implement clean, renewable solutions and decentralize energy systems. There is no energy shortage. All we need to do is use existing technologies to harness energy effectively and efficiently. Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures are ready, viable and increasingly competitive.”

4.    Natural Gas. Natural gas remains a key energy source for industrial uses and for electricity generation throughout the projection. The industrial sector accounted for approximately 40 percent of total world natural gas use in 2007, and it maintains that share through 2035. Because natural gas produces less carbon dioxide when it is burned than does either coal or petroleum, governments implementing national or regional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may encourage its use to displace other fossil fuels

5.    Emerging Nations. According to the EIA all of the scenarios used in the ETP 2010 report confirms a somewhat startling fact: nearly all of the future growth in energy demand and in emissions comes from non-OECD countries. Accelerating the spread of low-carbon technologies to non-OECD countries is therefore a critical challenge, particularly for the largest, fast-growing economies such as Brazil, China, India, the Russian Federation and South Africa.

6.    Waste Treatment (Energy from Waste). Waste to energy conversion is an increasingly recognised approach to resolving two issues in one - waste management and sustainable energy. Bioenergy CHP Waste represents an increasingly important fuel source. Governments are increasingly focusing on the fact that using waste as fuel can have important environmental benefits. It can not only provide a safe and cost-effective way of waste disposal but can also help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. When waste is incinerated in large amounts, the heat energy can be recycled and used to heat factories, hospitals and other large buildings. Alternatively, the heat can be used to generate electricity. This is done by using the steam created by combustion to drive a steam turbine. Electricity generating waste plants can typically process between 20,000 and 600,000 tonnes of waste per year, from which they can generate between 1 and 40 MW of electricity.

7.    Hybrid DEG. Decentralized energy and large scale renewables In order to achieve higher fuel efficiencies and reduce distribution losses, the Energy [R]evolution scenario makes extensive use of Decentralized. Building integrated photovoltaic, renovation can cut energy consumption of old buildings by as much as 80% - with energy efficient lighting systems, improved heat insulation, insulated windows and modern ventilation systems. Innovations in combined electrical generation with heat and cold production as a byproduct Energy (DE).This is energy generated at or near the point of use and therefore requires no transportation reducing losses and costs.

8.    Biomass. The technologies that have the biggest market potential and are already developed and robust are co-firing of biomass and combustion of biomass by Combined Heat & Power (CHP), as well as biofuels, as alcohol and oils have been produced on an industrial scale for many decades. At this moment in time, the weakest technology is bio-hydrogen production, however, it may well have a great market potential following development in the coming years

9.    Biofuels. Energy consumption in the transport sector depends almost exclusively on imported fossil fuels – oil. The sector is forecast to grow more rapidly than any other up to 2020 and beyond. And the sector is crucial to the functioning of the whole economy.  The importance and the vulnerability of the transport sector require that action is taken rapidly to reduce its malign contribution to sustainability and the insecurity of Europe's energy supply. US Domestic demand for ethanol is growing rapidly and the international markets are showing promising signs of growth due to increased ethanol blend-in targets. There is also an attractive opportunity in biomass cogeneration – an area still largely neglected by the industry. Brazil and US strong global position in the production and distribution of commodities, coupled with increasing global demand for these commodities, has created significant bottlenecks in commodity logistics & infrastructure. Despite the entrance of large strategic players the industry remains highly fragmented, and the predominantly small businesses tend to be managed inefficiently.

10.    Ocean Power . Growth of the sector to 2020 is estimated by using an exponential curve that follows the growth since 1998 leading to projected installed capacity of 3,6 GW by 2020. Considering ocean energy faces similar challenges as the offshore wind sector, a similar growth curve has been used to project the 2030 and 2050 scenarios leading to a projected installed capacity of 54 GW by 2030 and 188 GW by 2050. Furthermore, it is considered highly likely that ocean energy will form synergies with offshore wind.

Comments

[Milan]

Dept of Energy - Oakridge Report 12-2008

“Given the need to rein in our nation’s energy consumption and carbon emissions, while at the same time stimulating our economy out of its most serious downturn since the Great Depression, the author recommends that federal policymakers
seriously consider aggressively deploying
Geothermal Heat Pumps nationwide, with
programs commencing as soon as possible.”

[solar hot water systems]

Energy is the primary element required for any work. With the revolution in technology, it has been realised to discover new energy resources. At earlier stage the main energy resources were wind, sun and water.

[dreambox 500s]

The financial crisis with a huge deficit in many OECD countries, especially those with a less attractive renewable energy stimulus, caused serious reversal of government-backed feed-in tariffs.

[Sandy]

The analysis and report published in this site is wonderful . According to most of the investigators, it is anticipated that, the oil sources would dry up at the earliest. Moreover the solar, wind energy would be ruling the clean energy sector.I recommend the readers and writers to visit the website http://investmentsinenergy.com, since this has numerous data regarding the clean tech, so it would be helpful for you.

[Motorcycle Parts]

Faith in the sector, the segments are always safe and where new technologies appear to head for the general public at this stage rollercoaster

[clear wireless internet]

Its dual-pronged attack on the recession flooded the market with cheap credit and devalued our ability to repay loans. Thats what bonds - loans from the U.S. taxpayers.

[BOUTTI]

We rely heavily on your participation in our pro-activeinternational symposium Mediterranean in its second edition with a carrier theme "Sustainable Development in the event of Renewable Energy in Agadir (Grenier Global Sustainable Development) from April 11, 2011 .

Please also ensure wide dissemination in the Mediterraneanscientific event in its second edition.

Subject: International Congress of the MediterraneanRenewable Energy
Grand Prize: Oscar for associative Mediterranean AGR RES
Grand Prize: Oscar for businesses Mediterranean EnR
Location: Agadir, Morocco North Africa
Date: April 11 to 14, 2011
Website: http://www.med-islamicfinance.org
http://calenda.revues.org/nouvelle18546.html

Conference Chair: Rachid BOUTTI
Holder of the Chair of the Euro-Arab Sustainable Development
Mail: boutti_expert@live.fr
Again many thanks.
Greetings Agadir

[homes for sale glen allen]

According to the Anatolia news agency reporter who compiled the data for electricity, Turkey Company (TEIAS), energy consumption, which falls 2.4 percent